Paul Ojuri

Leaks

Ranked by frequency × severity × recency over 7089 analysed games (weighted 1282.2: over-the-board counts fully, blitz a fifth, bullet almost nothing). Confirmed needs 12 or more occurrences; provisional 5 to 11; fewer is a watch. Only confirmed leaks may drive more than a fifth of a week's training. Tactical motifs shown here passed validation against the Lichess puzzle database at 70% precision or better; the rest are tracked but hidden until they do.

01Mistakes and blunders with no tactical shape (judgement, not calculation)

confirmed
86.7 per 100 games (95% CI 49–55 of games)severity 31% win chance per occurrencen = 6413 in 3787 games (weighted 1112.2)score 477.7trend: flat (-4.2% vs previous 60 days, n 832/792)
Evidence position 1 for Mistakes and blunders with no tactical shape (judgement, not calculation)♜♚♟♝♟♟♟♞♟♛♟♟♟♟♝♟♟♜♛♜♚
2017-10-18 · classical · move 21
played f1c1, best c3d4, −44% · no tactical shape detected
Evidence position 2 for Mistakes and blunders with no tactical shape (judgement, not calculation)♟♝♟♚♟♟♟♟♜♟♝♜♟♟♚
2017-08-30 · classical · move 35
played f3g4, best g1g2, −41% · no tactical shape detected
Evidence position 3 for Mistakes and blunders with no tactical shape (judgement, not calculation)♜♜♚♟♟♟♟♟♛♟♟♞♛♟♟♝♟♞♝♝♞♜♚
2026-02-17 · rapid · move 30
played h5g4, best b3c5, −73% · no tactical shape detected
All 8 strongest examples

02Slow eval slides over several quiet moves with no single big error

confirmed
97.1 per 100 games (95% CI 62–67 of games)severity 19% win chance per occurrencen = 7007 in 4655 games (weighted 1244.6)score 328.3trend: flat (-1.1% vs previous 60 days, n 902/850)
Evidence position 1 for Slow eval slides over several quiet moves with no single big error♜♞♝♛♚♝♞♜♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♞♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♜♞♝♛♚♝♜
2014-08-04 · rapid · move 2
−33%
Evidence position 2 for Slow eval slides over several quiet moves with no single big error♜♝♛♚♝♞♜♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♞♟♟♟♞♟♟♟♟♟♟♜♞♝♛♚♝♜
2015-12-07 · correspondence · move 3
−57%
Evidence position 3 for Slow eval slides over several quiet moves with no single big error♜♜♚♟♝♟♟♟♟♞♟♟♞♟♞♟♟♚♟♟♜♝♝♜
2022-09-02 · rapid · move 17
−52%
All 8 strongest examples

03Errors made with under 30 seconds on the clock

confirmed
42.0 per 100 games (95% CI 15–19 of games)severity 36% win chance per occurrencen = 4950 in 1886 games (weighted 539.0)score 278.9trend: flat (+0.1% vs previous 60 days, n 615/463)
All 8 strongest examples

04Reached a clearly winning position (≥ +2) and did not win

confirmed
26.7 per 100 games (95% CI 24–29 of games)severity 50% win chance per occurrencen = 1980 in 1980 games (weighted 342.4)score 238.0trend: flat (-2.4% vs previous 60 days, n 254/245)
All 8 strongest examples

05Errors in critical positions after thinking under 5 seconds

confirmed
29.5 per 100 games (95% CI 20–25 of games)severity 20% win chance per occurrencen = 2482 in 1809 games (weighted 378.1)score 105.9trend: flat (+12.1% vs previous 60 days, n 311/261)
All 8 strongest examples

06Mistakes and blunders once the game reached an endgame

confirmed
15.3 per 100 games (95% CI 8–11 of games)severity 37% win chance per occurrencen = 1204 in 727 games (weighted 196.6)score 94.9trend: better (-17.5% vs previous 60 days, n 152/148)
Evidence position 1 for Mistakes and blunders once the game reached an endgame♟♚♚♟♝♟♟♝♟♟♟
2014-08-04 · rapid · move 54
−85%
Evidence position 2 for Mistakes and blunders once the game reached an endgame♟♚♟♟♟♟♟♚♟
2026-02-17 · rapid · move 50
−85%
Evidence position 3 for Mistakes and blunders once the game reached an endgame♟♚♟♚♟♟♟♟♟♟
2014-08-04 · rapid · move 48
−38%
All 8 strongest examples

07Allowed the opponent a fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)

confirmed
9.5 per 100 games (95% CI 7–10 of games)severity 41% win chance per occurrencen = 677 in 613 games (weighted 121.6)score 65.3trend: worse (+19.9% vs previous 60 days, n 96/79)
Evidence position 1 for Allowed the opponent a fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♟♚♟♜♛♟♝♟♟♟♟♚
2023-03-03 · rapid · move 46
played f5e4, best g5c1, −91% · rook forks a5, g5
Evidence position 2 for Allowed the opponent a fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♚♟♟♛♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♞♟♝♜♜♟♟♛♝♚♜
2025-05-20 · rapid · move 24
played d8e7, best d4e3, −89% · rook forks d4, e7; captures the defender of d4
Evidence position 3 for Allowed the opponent a fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♝♜♟♟♛♟♚♛♟♟♟♟♝♟♟♜♚♜
2016-10-07 · rapid · move 25
played d2h6, best f5e6, −88% · queen forks b2, d4, a5
All 8 strongest examples

08Allowed the opponent a mate in n (blunder-check / prophylaxis)

confirmed
3.9 per 100 games (95% CI 3–5 of games)severity 54% win chance per occurrencen = 308 in 289 games (weighted 49.4)score 41.4trend: worse (+17.3% vs previous 60 days, n 49/37)
Evidence position 1 for Allowed the opponent a mate in n (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♚♟♟♟♟♟♝♝♜♟♛♟♝♟♜♛♚
2025-05-13 · rapid · move 34
played e8e1, best g3h3, −95% · mate in 1
Evidence position 2 for Allowed the opponent a mate in n (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♚♜♟♝♟♟♜♟♛♟♟♞♟♞♟♝♟♛♟♟♟♚♟♜
2010-12-24 · rapid · move 19
played g5g6, best d4e6, −92% · mate in 1
Evidence position 3 for Allowed the opponent a mate in n (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♚♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♛♝♛♞♟♟♜♚
2026-03-06 · rapid · move 33
played f4g5, best f1f3, −91% · mate in 2
All 8 strongest examples

09Mistakes and blunders inside the first 10 moves

confirmed
7.6 per 100 games (95% CI 6–8 of games)severity 33% win chance per occurrencen = 557 in 503 games (weighted 98.0)score 37.5trend: worse (+18.3% vs previous 60 days, n 70/52)
Evidence position 1 for Mistakes and blunders inside the first 10 moves♞♝♚♞♜♟♟♟♟♟♟♝♟♝♞♟♟♝♞♟♟♟♟♛♟♜♛♚♜
2012-06-04 · rapid · move 9
−85%
Evidence position 2 for Mistakes and blunders inside the first 10 moves♜♞♝♛♚♜♟♟♟♟♛♟♟♟♞♝♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♜♞♝♚♝♞♜
2016-11-16 · rapid · move 5
−73%
Evidence position 3 for Mistakes and blunders inside the first 10 moves♜♝♚♝♞♜♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♞♟♞♟♛♟♝♟♟♟♟♜♞♛♚♝♜
2024-12-11 · correspondence · move 6
−61%
All 8 strongest examples

10Allowed the opponent a royal fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)

confirmed
5.4 per 100 games (95% CI 4–6 of games)severity 43% win chance per occurrencen = 398 in 367 games (weighted 69.3)score 36.8trend: worse (+20.8% vs previous 60 days, n 53/41)
Evidence position 1 for Allowed the opponent a royal fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♟♚♟♜♛♟♝♟♟♟♟♚
2023-03-03 · rapid · move 46
played f5e4, best g5c1, −91% · rook forks a5, g5
Evidence position 2 for Allowed the opponent a royal fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♝♜♚♛♟♝♟♟♞♟♟♟♟♛♟♟♟♚♟♝♜♝
2025-07-31 · rapid · move 30
played g4g5, best a1c3, −84% · queen forks c1, g2, f4
Evidence position 3 for Allowed the opponent a royal fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♚♟♜♟♟♟♟♟♞♟♞♛♛♟♟♟♟♟♟♜♜♚
2019-04-29 · rapid · move 20
played e6e4, best d8e8, −46% · knight forks e4, d7, g8; captures the defender of e4
All 8 strongest examples

11Missed your own fork (calculation / board vision)

confirmed
5.1 per 100 games (95% CI 4–6 of games)severity 40% win chance per occurrencen = 393 in 358 games (weighted 65.0)score 33.6trend: flat (-3.8% vs previous 60 days, n 45/43)
Evidence position 1 for Missed your own fork (calculation / board vision)♜♛♚♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♞♟♝♜♜♟♟♛♝♚♜
2025-05-20 · rapid · move 24
played d8e7, best d4e3, −89% · bishop forks d2, f4; defender of f4 dragged away
Evidence position 2 for Missed your own fork (calculation / board vision)♚♜♜♟♟♝♟♞♟♟♛♛♟♝♝♟♟♟♟♟♜♜♚
2026-01-31 · rapid · move 25
played a4a6, best c6e7, −79% · knight forks f5, c8
Evidence position 3 for Missed your own fork (calculation / board vision)♚♟♛♞♟♟♟♟♟♝♟♟♝♟♟♜♞♛♞♟♝♟♟♜♚
2012-10-04 · rapid · move 22
played d3e3, best d3b5, −78% · knight forks a3, c7
All 8 strongest examples

12Missed your own sacrifice (calculation / board vision)

confirmed
4.5 per 100 games (95% CI 3–6 of games)severity 38% win chance per occurrencen = 327 in 307 games (weighted 57.5)score 32.6trend: worse (+17.1% vs previous 60 days, n 43/37)
Evidence position 1 for Missed your own sacrifice (calculation / board vision)♛♚♜♟♝♜♟♞♟♞♞♟♟♟♟♟♞♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♝♜♛♚♜
2017-07-11 · correspondence · move 17
played g7e8, best c5d4, −64% · gives up 2 before winning it back
Evidence position 2 for Missed your own sacrifice (calculation / board vision)♛♟♚♛♞♟♟♟♟♟♟♜♚♜
2022-09-02 · rapid · move 39
played g2f1, best a7f2, −48% · gives up 9 before winning it back
Evidence position 3 for Missed your own sacrifice (calculation / board vision)♟♚♟♟♟♟♜♟♛♞♛♟♚
2025-06-11 · rapid · move 50
played a3a2, best c2c5, −47% · gives up 2 before winning it back
All 8 strongest examples

13Allowed the opponent a sacrifice (blunder-check / prophylaxis)

confirmed
4.6 per 100 games (95% CI 3–6 of games)severity 38% win chance per occurrencen = 314 in 294 games (weighted 59.0)score 30.1trend: flat (+7.6% vs previous 60 days, n 39/39)
Evidence position 1 for Allowed the opponent a sacrifice (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♚♟♟♜♞♟♟♛♞♛♟♟♟♟♟♜♚
2022-09-02 · rapid · move 30
played a7a4, best b6c6, −83% · gives up 3 before winning it back
Evidence position 2 for Allowed the opponent a sacrifice (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♚♟♟♟♟♜♟♟♛♝♟♟♞♟♜♛♜♚
2025-05-05 · rapid · move 25
played e6e1, best e6e3, −76% · gives up 6 before winning it back
Evidence position 3 for Allowed the opponent a sacrifice (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♜♟♚♟♟♟♟♟♟♞♟♟♟♟♜♟♟♜♝♚
2025-05-08 · rapid · move 30
played f5d4, best f5h4, −71% · gives up 2 before winning it back
All 8 strongest examples

14Allowed the opponent a knight fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)

confirmed
4.2 per 100 games (95% CI 3–5 of games)severity 39% win chance per occurrencen = 315 in 292 games (weighted 54.0)score 29.0trend: worse (+45.6% vs previous 60 days, n 46/35)
Evidence position 1 for Allowed the opponent a knight fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♛♜♟♟♟♚♝♟♞♟♝♟♟♛♟♟♞♟♟♟♟♟♜♞♝♚♜
2016-05-03 · rapid · move 11
played f5e6, best e7e6, −83% · knight forks g7, d8; defender of e6 dragged away
Evidence position 2 for Allowed the opponent a knight fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♝♚♟♟♞♟♞♟♜♟♛♝♟♚♟♟♟♜♜
2016-01-03 · rapid · move 26
played f7d6, best d3b1, −82% · knight forks e1, f4
Evidence position 3 for Allowed the opponent a knight fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♚♟♜♟♟♟♟♟♞♟♞♛♛♟♟♟♟♟♟♜♜♚
2019-04-29 · rapid · move 20
played e6e4, best d8e8, −46% · knight forks e4, d7, g8; captures the defender of e4
All 8 strongest examples

15Allowed the opponent a queen fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)

confirmed
2.7 per 100 games (95% CI 2–3 of games)severity 45% win chance per occurrencen = 190 in 180 games (weighted 34.1)score 19.1trend: worse (+16.3% vs previous 60 days, n 26/20)
Evidence position 1 for Allowed the opponent a queen fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♝♜♟♟♛♟♚♛♟♟♟♟♝♟♟♜♚♜
2016-10-07 · rapid · move 25
played d2h6, best f5e6, −88% · queen forks b2, d4, a5
Evidence position 2 for Allowed the opponent a queen fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♝♜♚♛♟♝♟♟♞♟♟♟♟♛♟♟♟♚♟♝♜♝
2025-07-31 · rapid · move 30
played g4g5, best a1c3, −84% · queen forks c1, g2, f4
Evidence position 3 for Allowed the opponent a queen fork (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♜♚♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♞♝♛♟♟♟♝♞♝♟♜♛♜♚
2026-02-09 · rapid · move 18
played h2g3, best f2g3, −79% · queen forks g1, e3
All 8 strongest examples

16Missed your own royal fork (calculation / board vision)

confirmed
2.5 per 100 games (95% CI 2–3 of games)severity 43% win chance per occurrencen = 202 in 190 games (weighted 32.5)score 16.9trend: better (-23.7% vs previous 60 days, n 20/22)
Evidence position 1 for Missed your own royal fork (calculation / board vision)♚♜♜♟♟♝♟♞♟♟♛♛♟♝♝♟♟♟♟♟♜♜♚
2026-01-31 · rapid · move 25
played a4a6, best c6e7, −79% · knight forks f5, c8
Evidence position 2 for Missed your own royal fork (calculation / board vision)♜♞♝♜♚♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♜♝♟♟♟♟♝♛♜♞♛♚
2011-08-08 · correspondence · move 13
played d7d6, best g2g3, −71% · queen forks e1, h4; captures the defender of h4
Evidence position 3 for Missed your own royal fork (calculation / board vision)♚♜♜♟♟♝♟♞♟♟♛♛♟♝♟♝♟♟♟♟♟♜♜♚
2026-01-31 · rapid · move 24
played f2f4, best c6e7, −70% · knight forks f5, c8
All 8 strongest examples

17Missed your own mate in n (calculation / board vision)

confirmed
1.4 per 100 games (95% CI 1–2 of games)severity 55% win chance per occurrencen = 117 in 110 games (weighted 18.5)score 16.0trend: better (-52.7% vs previous 60 days, n 13/25)
Evidence position 1 for Missed your own mate in n (calculation / board vision)♜♚♟♟♟♟♟♝♝♜♟♛♟♝♟♞♛♚
2025-05-13 · rapid · move 34
played e8e1, best g3h3, −95% · mate in 1
Evidence position 2 for Missed your own mate in n (calculation / board vision)♟♚♟♟♛♟♞♟♟♟♛♝♚
2025-05-05 · rapid · move 42
played f2f1, best f2h2, −93% · mate in 1
Evidence position 3 for Missed your own mate in n (calculation / board vision)♜♜♚♝♟♟♟♟♟♝♟♛♟♜♟♟♟♜♛♚
2017-01-08 · rapid · move 26
played g7g6, best e4h1, −52% · mate in 1
All 8 strongest examples

18Allowed the opponent a discovered attack (blunder-check / prophylaxis)

confirmed
2.0 per 100 games (95% CI 1–3 of games)severity 38% win chance per occurrencen = 155 in 142 games (weighted 26.3)score 14.6trend: better (-21.6% vs previous 60 days, n 17/21)
Evidence position 1 for Allowed the opponent a discovered attack (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♚♜♝♟♟♛♟♟♟♚♟♟♟♜
2023-11-28 · correspondence · move 37
played e5e6, best g3f3, −78% · rook forks g3, e6; pinned queen on g6 attacked and won; discovered attack on g6
Evidence position 2 for Allowed the opponent a discovered attack (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♜♜♚♟♟♝♟♟♟♟♞♞♟♛♟♝♛♟♜♜♚
2026-04-05 · blitz · move 23
played d6d3, best a6b7, −84% · discovered attack on f5
Evidence position 3 for Allowed the opponent a discovered attack (blunder-check / prophylaxis)♚♞♜♝♞♟♟♟♟♛♟♟♜♚♟
2026-05-23 · blitz · move 41
played b3c3, best b3d3, −82% · discovered attack on c3
All 8 strongest examples

19Missed your own knight fork (calculation / board vision)

confirmed
2.1 per 100 games (95% CI 1–3 of games)severity 39% win chance per occurrencen = 166 in 147 games (weighted 27.4)score 13.7trend: flat (-4.4% vs previous 60 days, n 20/18)
Evidence position 1 for Missed your own knight fork (calculation / board vision)♚♜♜♟♟♝♟♞♟♟♛♛♟♝♝♟♟♟♟♟♜♜♚
2026-01-31 · rapid · move 25
played a4a6, best c6e7, −79% · knight forks f5, c8
Evidence position 2 for Missed your own knight fork (calculation / board vision)♚♟♛♞♟♟♟♟♟♝♟♟♝♟♟♜♞♛♞♟♝♟♟♜♚
2012-10-04 · rapid · move 22
played d3e3, best d3b5, −78% · knight forks a3, c7
Evidence position 3 for Missed your own knight fork (calculation / board vision)♚♜♜♟♟♝♟♞♟♟♛♛♟♝♟♝♟♟♟♟♟♜♜♚
2026-01-31 · rapid · move 24
played f2f4, best c6e7, −70% · knight forks f5, c8
All 8 strongest examples

20Missed your own queen fork (calculation / board vision)

confirmed
1.7 per 100 games (95% CI 1–2 of games)severity 42% win chance per occurrencen = 130 in 126 games (weighted 21.4)score 11.3trend: flat (-1.2% vs previous 60 days, n 15/13)
Evidence position 1 for Missed your own queen fork (calculation / board vision)♜♚♛♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♚♟♛♜♜♜
2016-05-03 · rapid · move 31
played h1h2, best a7c7, −77% · queen forks c6, d8
Evidence position 2 for Missed your own queen fork (calculation / board vision)♜♞♝♜♚♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♟♜♝♟♟♟♟♝♛♜♞♛♚
2011-08-08 · correspondence · move 13
played d7d6, best g2g3, −71% · queen forks e1, h4; captures the defender of h4
Evidence position 3 for Missed your own queen fork (calculation / board vision)♟♟♟♟♞♚♟♛♟♟♞♛♟♚♟
2026-07-08 · blitz · move 43
played h5g4, best h5e5, −82% · queen forks e2, a3
All 8 strongest examples

Game data from Chess.com (Published-Data API) and Lichess (open API and CC0 database). Engine analysis by Stockfish. Ratings from FIDE. Board design is our own. Data generated 2026-11-10 20:51 UTC.