Route to a title

Target: CM by 2028-09-19. Two ways in: a published rating (CM 2200, FM 2300, no norms) or a podium in the World Amateur U2000 section (gold FM, silver or bronze CM). Every number below is recomputed from the current FIDE list and the calendar; the regulations are cited from the FIDE handbook and the 2026 WACC regulations.

WACC 2026 registration closes in 18 days (9 Oct 2026); nothing is registered.

Standard rating flagged inactive: one rated game restores activity.

FIDE standard1795inactive · list 202609 · K = 20

Gap to CM405points to 2200

WACC registration18 dayscloses 2026-10-09 · event starts in 44 days

Rated classical games, 12 months01 game restores activity

Route B · World Amateur U2000

FIDE World Amateur Chess Championships 2026, Klang, Selangor, 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-13. 9-round Swiss, 90+30, fee 140 EUR. Eligible now: yes. Requirement: no published standard rating ≥ 2000 between 2025-11-04 and 2026-11-04, no title above CM. Podium: gold FM, silver or bronze CM.

Crossing 2000 on a published list after the registration deadline moves you up to U2300 (reg. 3.3d); a published rating >= 2000 inside the lookback year makes you ineligible for U2000. Sources: regulations, direct titles table.

Route A · rating

CM at 2200: 405 points away. Probability of getting there by 2028-09-19 under the scenario below: 1%.

FM at 2300: 505 points away. Probability of getting there by 2028-09-19 under the scenario below: —.

Rules: K = 20, rating differences capped at 400, K·n ≤ 700 per period (FIDE B.02, 2024).

Monte Carlo · 4,000 simulated careers

Scenario: 8 nine-round opens per year at +50 average opposition, in addition to calendar events. Performance model: online rapid/classical, last 365 days (294 games), offset +32.3 ± 63.8, draw rate 10%.

median1928

10th–90th pct1697–2102

P(≥ 2000)38%

P(≥ 2200)1%

Calendar-only run (0 registered events, 1 listed): median 1803, P(≥2000) 0%.

The rating route needs roughly eight to ten opens a year performing 150–250 points above rating, sustained for two years. The amateur route needs one podium in one week. That asymmetry is the whole strategy.

Calendar

Event	Dates	Where	Format	Days	Deadline	Gain @+150	@+250	Status
FIDE World Amateur Chess Championships 2026wacc	2026-11-04 → 2026-11-13	Klang, Selangor, MYS	9-round Swiss, 90+30	44	2026-10-09 (18d)	+38.1	+59.9	not registered (auto-added)

Add events to chess-coach/config/calendar.yaml. Expected gain assumes K = 20, the listed rounds and average opposition, and a performance 150 or 250 points above rating.

Game data from Chess.com (Published-Data API) and Lichess (open API and CC0 database). Engine analysis by Stockfish. Ratings from FIDE. Board design is our own. Data generated 2026-09-21 07:02 UTC.